Snow water equivalent (this year)30-yr median (1991–2020)Snow depth
Model-by-model snowfall
When models agree, confidence is higher. HRRR only runs 48 h ahead; ICON about 7.5 days. NWS row is the official National Weather Service gridded forecast at the grid elevation shown.
NWS official forecast
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How this forecast is built (and how accurate it can be)
Six independent weather models via Open-Meteo: NOAA HRRR (3 km, best 0–48 h in mountains), NWS National Blend of Models (bias-corrected), NOAA GFS, ECMWF IFS (9 km), DWD ICON, Canada GEM. Each is pulled at the base, mid and summit coordinates and adjusted to that exact elevation.
Consensus = median of the models (for multi-day totals, the median of each model's own storm total); range = lowest to highest model. Confidence is High / Moderate / Low based on how widely the models disagree.
Snowfall is computed the same way for every model: hourly liquid precip × snow fraction (from wet-bulb temperature) × a temperature-based snow-to-liquid ratio tuned for Colorado's dry snow (about 10:1 near freezing, 15–19:1 in cold storms). Snow totals are less certain than liquid precip.
Snowpack is measured, not modeled: daily SWE and depth from the nearest NRCS SNOTEL stations, compared with the 1991–2020 median.
Limits: no forecast is exact. Mountain snow totals routinely miss by ±30–50% beyond 48 h, and orographic and wind effects at ridge scale are finer than any model grid. Days 1–2 are much more reliable than days 6–10. For backcountry travel, always check CAIC.